Exploration Prospect Evaluation

Correctly predicting hydrocarbon volumes for exploration prospects is one of the most important steps in exploration decision-making.

Exploration teams often face questions such as:

• What hydrocarbon volumes can realistically be expected from a prospect?
• How should uncertainty in volumetric parameters be captured?
• How should chance of geologic success be identified and incorporated into volume predictions?

Many training courses focus primarily on software functionality, leaving geoscientists without a clear understanding of the probabilistic methodology behind volumetric assessment.

This course provides a practical, commercial software-independent workflow for probabilistic prospect evaluation.

Participants build a Monte Carlo volumetric model from scratch in Excel, gaining a clear understanding of how probabilistic volume estimates are constructed.

Through guided exercises, participants learn how to:

• build input parameter distributions
• define parameter correlations
• calculate chance of geologic success
• run Monte Carlo simulations
• interpret and present simulation results

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

• Predict in-place hydrocarbon volume ranges for exploration prospects
• Build probabilistic volumetric models from scratch
• Capture uncertainty using realistic input parameter distributions
• Define the chance of geologic success and risk dependencies for multiply accumulations
• Run Monte Carlo simulations for single accumulations or aggregated prospects
• Present results and sensitivities clearly to exploration teams

• Exploration geologists and geophysicists

• Exploration team leaders

• Petrophysicists, Reservoir engineers and Economists who support exploration teams